Florida Dems back on the map, poised for gains in 2024

TALLAHASSEE, FL — It's been a year since Nikki Fried was elected to run the Florida Democratic Party. Just last year, Democrats held a contentious election to determine the leadership, and future of the party. Fried faced primary opposition from Annette Taddeo, a former State Senator from Miami. Since her election, Democrats flipped Jacksonville's Mayorship and a central Florida state house seat electing Navy vet Tom Keen. Democrats were expected to lose both races, but defied the odds. The party even over-performed in a special election for a Miami-Dade based house seat held by Republicans. They lost by 6%, a smaller margin than the 17% loss just a year prior. The once-irrelevant Florida Democratic Party, marred by losses in extremely winnable races, is now revitalized and making gains in a state controlled by Republicans. Fried hopes to replicate the party's success, which she told The County is about "Getting back to the basics. Year round organizing which includes re-enlisting individuals for vote by mail and staying on message – talking about the issues the people care about."

Fried's leadership style shines bright in contrast with previous chair Manny Diaz, who was at best boring. Diaz, a former Mayor of Miami, presided over the worst gubernatorial loss in Florida history since 1868. DeSantis who won by only 30,000 votes or 0.4% against Andrew Gillum in 2018, trounced Charlie Crist in 2022 by 19 points, with 1.5 million more votes than Democrats. In just 4 years, Democratic turnout fell by 900k votes, and Republican turnout increased by 600k. Democrats lost house and senate seats, and the GOP gained a supermajority in the Florida Legislature in 2022. Fried, on the other hand, served as Agriculture Commissioner from 2019-2023, and was the only Democrat to win statewide that year. She has a more on-the-ground, visible, retail politics style of leadership. Her politics summed up in a single phrase: "Just F**k!ng Vote." Fried, alongside Sen. Lauren Book of Broward County were arrested last year in Tallahassee while protesting the six-week abortion ban which passed the Florida Legislature. The Florida Democratic Party of today have focused heavily on building party infrastructure and increasing the big tent. The party rebranded, enacted major reforms of the undemocratic weighted-vote, and established the party's first ever Youth Council.

The victory of Navy veteran Tom Keen in House District 35 stands as a testament to the field strategy and coalition building efforts of the Florida Democratic Party. Keen's campaign effectively connected with voters across the spectrum, utilizing an approach that resonated deeply with voters. A key factor in his success was the groundwork he laid with support from the party. Keen's appeal went beyond party lines, attracting more than two-thirds of independent voters, a remarkable achievement credited to robust outreach and compelling messaging. The campaign tapped into the energy and momentum generated by rising stars within the Democratic Party in the region, including U.S. Representative Maxwell Frost, who became the first member of Congress from Gen Z; State Representative Anna Eskamani and former Representative Carlos Guillermo Smith. Despite being outspent threefold Keen emerged victorious signifying a shift in Florida's political landscape and underscoring the growing strength of the Democratic Party, in this area. While there's still time to go until the 2024 election which will feature a U.S. Senate race and multiple down-ballot races, we can safely say that the party is off to a good start. They're aiming to compete again. They're actually trying to gain seats. They have a field game. The model Florida Democrats are using seems to be working well, at least for now.

2024: Florida Democrats biggest test yet

Although they've had major wins over the past year, Florida Democrats still have incredible mountains to climb. The biggest test yet? This year's elections, which will feature the Presidency and U.S. Senator Rick Scott on the same ballot. Half of the Florida Senate is up for election, and the entire Florida House is up for grabs. Democrats are poised to nominate former Congresswoman Debbie Mucarsel-Powell of Miami. Notwithstanding the large mountains of obstacles facing Democrats statewide, trends indicate that Democrats should be able to replicate their successes to take away the Republican supermajority in the state legislature.

State Sen. Shevrin Jones who represents Miami-Dade told The County that Democrats' recent success can be replicated this year. "While many doubt the Florida Democrats' ability to make headway, I point to races like Donna Deegan and Tom Keen. Republicans thought they had these races in the bag, but strong leadership, messaging, and strategy led us to victory." Jones, a rising star in the party is seen as a potential contender for the party's nomination in 2026 for Governor. "Although we may not have a clean sweep, I believe our party and caucus leaders are committed to the long game, and I share that belief. It took Republicans years to reach this point, so our efforts won’t yield overnight success, but slow and steady wins the race – literally!" He's correct. It took Florida Republicans decades to build a party infrastructure that gained them huge wins. Democrats can do the same. Look no further than Georgia, where Democrats the defied odds and took both U.S. Senate Seats in 2021 with Rev. Raphael Warnock and Jon Ossoff, and elected Joe Biden in 2020. It took Democrats in the state decades of building party infrastructure and a strong get out the vote game. Party activists point to this as proof that Florida is not a lost cause.

Mucarsel-Powell, 53, is a firebrand gun violence prevention advocate who became the first South American-born immigrant to serve as a member of the U.S. Congress. She lost her father to gun violence and has spent her life fighting to prevent gun violence. After losing her bid for re-election in a Miami-Dade based swing house seat, she became a senior adviser for Giffords, a gun violence policy advocacy group. Her campaign's central themes are reproductive choice, defending medicare and social security, and preventing gun violence. For Mucarsel-Powell, this race is an opportunity to unseat an unpopular but well-funded Washington politician.

It took Republicans years to reach this point, so our efforts won’t yield overnight success, but slow and steady wins the race – literally!"

Scott, 71, is the former Governor of Florida (2011-2019). He was elected to the U.S. Senate in 2018, defeating Democratic Senator Bill Nelson by just 0.1% or 10,000 votes. Scott was CEO of the Columbia Hospital Corporation, which was convicted of defrauding Medicare, Medicaid, and other federal programs. The company was fined $1.7 billion in what was at the time the largest healthcare fraud settlement in U.S. history. Since his election, Scott has taken a turn to the far-right and has embraced Trump-style politics. He came under fire in 2022 for his national plan to "sunset" social security, entitlements, and federal programs. At the time, Scott was chair of the Republican Senate Campaign Committee. Some republicans say Scott was responsible for GOP senate losses. Others say Scott's policy beliefs may hinder his own re-election chances. Senate Minority Leader and fellow republican Mitch McConnell tore through Scott. "It’s just a bad idea. I think it will be a challenge for him to deal with this in his own re-election in Florida, a state with more elderly people than any other state." Democrats are hoping to capitalize on this, which will prove key in the election.

Luckily for them, Florida Republicans are in disarray. The FL GOP lost in Orlando, in Jacksonville, and barely won HD-118 —  a DeSantis +17 seat. Just a few weeks ago, the Republican Party of Florida chair Christian Ziegler was accused of rape and ousted by his own party's executive committee. Governor Ron DeSantis? Presidential ambitions crushed in Iowa. Even so, the Florida GOP has not acknowledged its string of losses. New Florida GOP Chair Evan Power says that he is looking forward to more GOP wins in Florida. His first and biggest task? Keeping Rick Scott in the U.S. Senate. He's also tasked with keeping the supermajority for Republicans in the state legislature. But not if Florida Dems strip their power away.